Executive Recruitment
‘V’ or ‘W’?
So far the news headlines of 2009 have been little more than a barrage of bad news predictions about the impending disaster we are apparently facing with regards to unemployment.
You would be forgiven for shrieking with despair at news that the ‘Labour Force Survey’ (seen as a key measure of unemployment) has seen an increase in unemployment (from 1.5million to 2.5 million) but when business experts have looked behind this figure, they have concluded that part of this increase has been due to over 250,000 full-time students looking for jobs.
One of the tragic statistics around this recession has been the increase in unemployment among the 16 to 24 year olds (this figure is now at nearly 1 million!) However, you could easily argue that those 250,000 full time students (mainly in the age bracket) looking for part time jobs should not be treated as ‘genuine’ unemployed, which obviously make that original figure of 1 million look a little more palatable.
However, these figures do little to help us all at least think more positively, and despite increased levels of activity in the jobs market both locally and regionally (and some much more encouraging figures over the last 3 months for employment levels), I think we are still some way off some real good news.
Indeed, the results of a survey by the insolvency specialists Begbies Traynor released earlier this week indicate that the rise in business confidence is a temporary lull before a fresh slump that will see up to 40,000 businesses go bust next year! The results continue to point out that in their opinion; we are at the mid-point of a "W" shaped recession.
Although the number of companies “in distress” has declined they believe that this is set to increase in 2010 and into 2011 with between 30,000 and 40,000 failing – obviously leading to a significant increase in the unemployment figures.
It could be argued that this study is indeed a bit of slick marketing for the insolvency business who are obviously specialists in restructuring distressed businesses, but unfortunately only time will tell whether we are in a ‘V’ or ‘W’ shaped recession. I, as no doubt most of you am hoping for ‘V’!
for more information contact Nigel Brewster at nigel.brewster@sewellm.co.uk